This article is taken from the book “ The Personal MBA : Master the Art of Business” by Josh Kaufman
« Hofstadter’s Law : It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law.”
DOUGLAS HOFSTADTER, COGNITIVE SCIENTIST AND AUTHOR OF GÖDEL, ESCHER, BACH: AN ETERNAL GOLDEN BRAID (1980 PULITZER PRIZE)
Human beings are incredibly bad at forecasting and planning. Even the plan drawn up by the smartest and most talented executive or project manager has every chance of being completely wrong.
As Jason Fried and David Heinemeier Hansson ironically state in their book Rework, “Planning is guessing.” If we are so bad at forecasting and planning, it is because we are not omniscient – unexpected events and circumstances can upset the most accurate plans.
When we scaffold projects, we merely make assumptions and use interpretation to fill in the gaps, however hard we try to hide this unpleasant reality under the most complex jargon and the most sophisticated charts.
The Planning Fallacy means that people tend to underestimate the time it takes to complete a project. The more complex a project is, the more interdependencies it contains (a concept discussed later). And the more interdependencies there are, the more likely it is that at some point things will not go as planned.
When we develop projects, we naturally tend to imagine a scenario where everything goes like clockwork. As a result, we underestimate the likelihood of events that could change the course of our project and the strength of their impact. Few projects take into account a possibility such as: “The project manager contracts mononucleosis: one-month stoppage.”
Most projects considerably underestimate the “Margin” needed to avoid unpleasant surprises. If you are responsible for delivering a complex project, be sure to include a few months of margin for unforeseen delays, vacations, sick leave and other unexpected events that may delay the completion of your project.
The problem is that guarding a Margin is never looked upon favorably. Whether you talk with an executive, a client or a partner about a project that involves three months of Margin, they will answer: “That’s not acceptable, move faster.” The margin will be eliminated and, as a result, nearly every other project falls behind.
However, just because forecasts are inaccurate does not mean they are useless. Anticipating allows a better understanding of requirements, dependencies and risks. As Eisenhower rightly said: “No battle was ever won according to plan, but no battle was ever won without a plan… Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” The value of planning lies in Mental Simulation: the thought process required to draw up the plan itself.
Use the plans you develop, but don’t depend on them – as long as you work as quickly and efficiently as possible, you will have every chance of completing your project successfully.
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